Writer: Gage O'Leary
Lions fall short in Thanksgiving dog fight vs AFC favorite Bills:
Lions fans were handed yet another gut wrenching late game collapse from Detroit but were treated to one of the best Thanksgiving games in Lions history and watched as Detroit changed the narrative "Same old Lions".
Detroit played a game plenty capable of winning and probably should've won Thursdays game. Questionable clock management and play calling in Detroit's final offensive drive led to Detroit settling for a game tying FG from K Michael Badgley. The kick was good, but the Lions left MVP caliber Quarterback Josh Allen, 23 seconds on the clock. As a Lions fan I've seen this story before, so I was already prepared for the heartbreak. Surely enough, Allen connected with All-Pro WR Stefon Diggs to creep up on field goal range. Buffalo had time outs in they're pockets and used them to their advantage. With Allen's athletic ability he was able to use his legs to make Tyler Bass's game winner that much easier, surely enough it was good, and Buffalo was victorious.
Although the heartbreak was there at the end of the game, this Lions team is different and people are acknowledging it. They aren't where they want to be yet but they are getting there and that to me is because of three things...
1. The young defense is developing and they have hit a growth spurt since the first two months of the season. The script has been flipped for Detroit as they started 1-6 in a time where the young defense was worst in the league and it was the offense that was among the best in the league. The Lions have won 3 of they're last 4 and I think that's because the defense has held up in those games at times where it mattered with the exception of Thursdays final drive. There's so many young players drafted under Brad Holmes that's producing it's almost hard to keep up with them all. Aidan Hutchinson has flown under the radar and is having a really strong rookie campaign, his awareness is showing up on tape in a big way. Kerby Joseph, the rookie out of Illinois leads the team with 3 INT's. Jeff Okudah (Not drafted by Holmes) is playing like the 3rd overall pick we've been waiting for, the young Cornerback's progress this season has been refreshing to say the least. Malcolm Rodriguez has been excellent as advertised in his rookie season, bringing much needed talent to the Lions LB room. Other young defensemen producing for Detroit is Alim McNeil, Derrick Barnes, Jerry Jacobs and now James Houston...
2. Dan Campbell is growing as a coach, he's been building a great culture in Detroit but now he's finding his way when it comes to actually calling the game. Yes, he could've done better with the final 2 minutes of the Lions, Bills game but regardless he's getting there and he's got a fantastic coaching staff behind him that's helping mold this team into contention. Campbell's first road win came against the Bears and he followed that up with another against the Giants. Evidence of growth is there and patience is starting to pay off. I'm confident the Lions finally found a coach that'll be sticking around after rotating through different head coaches the past few years. It'd feel great to finally have some stability in this organization.
3. Lions owner Sheila Ford Hamp hit a grand slam with the hire of GM Brad Holmes. He is a football genius and when it comes to the draft, I'm not sure there's anyone better. Detroit is in good hands with Holmes calling the shots and players like Amon-Ra St. Brown and all the other guys i named earlier are proving just that. Obviously, the Lions scouts deserve big credit but at the end of the day, it's Brad Holmes decision. Right now the Lions have a top 3 pick in the draft but it's different this time. They have that pick from the Rams from the Stafford trade. Detroit fans are used to having high draft picks but not while playing good football at the same time. This upcoming draft is a huge opportunity for the Lions to possibly end the rebuild and start contending. The NFC is not good, especially the North, the Packers are awful now and it seems like Rodgers long time dominance against the North is over. Detroit will have plenty of cap space to acquire the necessary free agents they need and make splashes with trades if they would like to...
Dispite mathematically having a decent chance to make the Playoffs and looking at the Lions final games down the stretch it's doable, I don't see the Lions finally turning that page just yet... Now let's get back to this Sunday's game.
Lions Keys to the game:
1. Offense keeps roaring at home: The Lions at home are as tough to beat as they come. The Lions offense at home this season has been dominate. They've scored 25+ in all but one home game this season, 3 of those games were 30+ points scored including a 45 points scored LOSS to the Seattle Seahawks (48-45). The one game that the Lions didn't score 25+ in Ford Field was a 15-9 win against the Packers. The Lions will play they're next two games at home, this weekend against the Jaguars and next weekend against the division leading 9-2 Minnesota Vikings. For this weekend's game if the Lions can once again have an offensive explosion I'll find it hard to believe that the Jaguars can keep up and match the Lions pace.
2. Pass Rush: Detroit's pass rush has been incredibly inconsistent this season. It shined in the Lions week 2 win against the Commanders but we haven't seen that type of performance since. I feel like the Jags will attack with the passing game Sunday and Detroit will need to get to Trevor Lawrence if they want to stop them from keeping up with the Lions pace offensively. James Houston made his NFL debut Thursday and even then didn't see much playing time. Houston had the only 2 sacks for the Lions in the Bills game, he brought down Josh Allen on his FIRST NFL SNAP! Then he did it again a little later. If he's legit, than that could be what Aidan Hutchinson has been missing to open up a dominate pass rush. Hutchinson hasn't had any help as nobody has been able to put pressure on the Quarterback. I think that to be at the top of your game as a Pass Rusher you need to have another talented DE on the other end of you, proof of this in my eyes is Aidan Hutchinson's Heisman runner-up campaign in 2021 with the Michigan Wolverines where he had another double digit sack pass rusher in David Ojabo going after the QB as well, this takes away the possibility of getting double teamed all game long and opens up gaps to get to the QB. Hopefully James Houston has been that missing piece. Some might say that's a bit dramatic but I don't think so, I think Houston has strong potential to be great at this level and Charles Harris hasn't helped us out since week 2 so why not Houston?.
3. Get off the field on 3rd down: The Lions would've won Thursdays game if they got off the field on 3rd down just once or twice more. Seemed like for awhile there no matter what we did we couldn't stop the Bills on 3rd down. We didn't have much trouble getting the Bills to 3rd down but we couldn't finish. This ultimately was a big reason we couldn't pull off the upset. We have to rely on both the pass rush and our secondary to make those plays when it matters the most.
Jacksonville Jaguars keys to the game:
1. Frustrate Lions defense: I said the Lions need to get off the field on 3rd down for a reason. It's frustrating when a team is able to dominate time of possession as long as they are scoring while doing it. Long successful drives will wear down the Lions young defense and eventually will lead to the big yardage plays. This won't just help you offensively but it would also kill any offensive momentum that the Lions have. Converting on 3rd downs will be a big key for the Jags Sunday.
2. Stopping Amon-Ra St. Brown: If it's even possible the Jaguars need to limit St. Brown Sunday. He has looked nearly unstoppable when healthy and he had a huge game vs the Bills, but throughout the game it became obvious he wasn't exactly 100%. The occasional look of discomfort for St. Brown certainly was concerning for Lions fans but he continued to bust off big plays. This has been a mini bye week for Detroit with them playing on Thursday and of course not playing this past Sunday. Hopefully the time off was enough to get St. Brown back to 100% healthy. Stopping him would be stopping the Lions heartbeat on offense. This will be key for the Jaguars if they want the road win.
3. Stopping the Lions rushing attack: The Lions rushing attack isn't nearly as intimidating as it was the first few weeks of the season but it's still productive. Jaamal Williams leads the NFL in Touchdowns with 13, if the Lions are inside the RedZone or more specifically near the goal line they will have to stop Williams. D'Andre Swift had a fast start but injuries has held him back, if he's at all closer to 100% Sunday the Jags will still have to deal with him and try to stop him. The Lions have a well balanced offense because of the run game, if they can stop that and force the Lions to rely on Jared Goff then they're chances of winning skyrocket.
Detroit Lions players to watch:
1. James Houston: I mentioned earlier why I think James Houston will have a big impact on the game. He is explosive and fun to watch and I'm excited for his 2nd career NFL game. In 2021, his final collegiate season he was coached by the legendary Deion Sanders at Jackson State University. He forced FIVE turnovers at JSU last season with 4 forced fumbles and an interception. He spent his first three college seasons at Florida where he recorded his 4.5 career sacks. His specialty is forcing turnovers he had 9 of them in his career, 8 FF's and one interception. The stats don't stick out to you but his tape shows his speed rush ability on the edge, in fact, he has one punt return for 28 yards in 2018 with Florida. I hope that I'm right and Houston is the missing piece for the Lions pass rush. He has potential to be another late round steal from Brad Holmes.
2. Aidan Hutchinson: Anytime the Lions play Hutch is a player to watch, all eyes are on the 2nd overall draft pick out of Michigan. He's definitely flown under the radar this season, he'd be more productive if the Lions didn't fail to rush the QB up front. He has 5.5 sacks this season and even more impressive he has 2 interceptions, as a rookie defensive end! On top of that Hutchinson also has a fumble recovery. His awareness has been excellent this season, both INT's were read perfectly and in the game against the Bears where Jeff Okudah had a massive pick 6, Hutch played a big role in that interception after reading the screen, he blew up the play resulting in the Okudah INT. Hutch is an impactful player, watch for him to make an impact on Sunday.
3. Amon-Ra St. Brown: This is an obvious choice. St. Brown is by far the most exciting player on offense for the Lions and is almost the heartbeat on that side of the ball for Detroit. Something to keep an eye on is his health. If he is healthy he should have a big game Sunday.
Jaguars players to watch:
1. Marvin Jones Jr: Lions fans will recognize one of Trevor Lawrence's favorite targets, WR Marvin Jones Jr... Jones played for the Lions from 2016 to 2020 and in his 5 seasons there he put together 4,296 yards on 289 catches and had 38 TD's with Stafford and the Lions. He was signed by Jacksonville last season where he had 73 receptions, for 832 yards and 4 touchdowns. So far this season Jones has 31 receptions for 368 yards and 2 Touchdowns. I anticipate Marvin Jones Jr to have a big game in his return to Ford Field.
2. Travon Walker: No surprise to see the No. 1 overall pick in the Draft on my players to watch list and it's for a few reason. One is of course the fact that there is high expectations for Walker being the first choice in the draft, second of all, the matchup between him and the 2nd overall pick Aidan Hutchinson, both play the same position and both wanting to prove they were the best at they're position in the draft, third he is going against one of if not the best offensive line in football. The Lions rarley allow sacks, Jared Goff's jersey is usually pretty clean after the game. How will Walker perform against the Lions O-Line? He has recorded 2.5 sacks this season, 3 less than Hutchinson. Walker has an interception, Hutchinson has 2. Production hasn't yet been there for the rookie out of Georgia, but there's still plenty of time to get going.
3. Travis Etienne Jr: Even though I think the gameplay for Jacksonville is to throw the ball around I'm still keeping my eyes on running back Travis Etienne Jr in his return from injury. Etienne and QB Trevor Lawrence were college teammates at Clemson and both were drafted by the Jaguars in the 1st-round of the 2021 NFL Draft, Lawrence went 1st overall and Etienne went 25th overall. The Jags running game is relying on him as Jacksonville traded James Robinson a few weeks ago to the Jets. To have any success in the passing game you have to have a run game to keep the defense honest. Getting him back is a big deal for Jacksonville this weekend.
Predictions:
We've reached the final destination of the article, it's time for predictions. Begining with stat lines...
Lions:
Jared Goff: 224 yards, 2 Touchdowns, 1 INT. I think Goff will need to throw it quite a bit to lead the Lions to a win and I think he'll throw for two touchdowns. Jags will force him into an interception at some point in the game as well. Just my projections for Goff, we'll see how close I am.
Jaamal Williams: 19 carries, 68 yards and 2 Touchdowns. The offensive success this season after week 2 has began with Williams. He's the Lions rock in the back field especially when Detroit drives down to the goaline. He's the finisher and I see him punching in 2 touchdowns. I'm following the trend on carries for Williams, the last 3 games he's had 16, 17 and 18 carries for 59, 64 and 66 yards.
Amon-Ra St. Brown: 9 receptions for 97 yards and a Touchdown. Not much to say about this projection. St. Brown should have a solid day and be a big impact for Detroit.
D'Andre Swift: 5 carries, 19 yards, 2 receptions, 12 yards and a Touchdown. I don't think we'll see a lot of Swift Sunday as he continues to battle pesky injuries but I think he'll get in to the game enough that he's able to have some what of an impact. He's got a couple receiving touchdowns this season so I'm just gonna go ahead and predict he gets another against the Jaguars.
Justin Jackson: I got a feeling he's gonna get a touchdown in this game in some fashion. I don't know if he's going to return one or rush for one, but I'll go ahead and predict he gets a touchdown Sunday.
Aidan Hutchinson & James Houston: Combine for 2 sacks, 4 pressures and 2 TFL's. I just think these two are gonna create problems for the opponents on this final stretch of games.
Jaguars:
Trevor Lawrence: 239 yards, 2 Touchdowns, 2 INT. Similar stat line as Jared Goff for Lawrence, I think Detroit forces him to a couple mistakes as you see two interceptions. I never try to predict stat lines so I could be close or extremely far off. We'll find out on Sunday.
Travis Etienne Jr: 16 carries, 74 yards, Touchdown, 3 receptions, 28 yards, Touchdown. It's hard to predict his stat line with the foot injury but he's had a good season and I don't think the Jags will limit him to much. I could see him getting in the EndZone on the ground and in the air.
Marvin Jones Jr: 12 receptions, 126 yards, Touchdown. I told you I think Jones Jr is gonna have a big day in his return back to Detroit. The WR has has many big games at Ford Field and I believe he's gonna have another one Sunday. It just seems right for Marvin to get going back here, he's one of Lawrence's favorite targets and I believe Jones will be the big play guy for the Jaguars when they need some yardage or momentum. He's like Golladay was in Detroit, capable of winning those 50/50 balls and can get it done 1-on-1 or double teamed. I'm excited to watch him again as it's been awhile for me, he was fun to watch when he was with Detroit.
SCORE?
I'm picking the Lions to win this game 35-24 at home against the Jaguars, even though Jacksonville is coming in with momentum. Lions by 11...
Thanks for reading. Go Lions!
Comments